By Frank Clemente and Fred Palmer; Coal is the Cornerstone LLC 

July 5, 2025 - China will soon have over 1,500 Gigawatts (GW) of dispatchable coal generating capacity to meet the 24/7 reliability demands of AI, its associated data centers and societal electrification in general. In sharp contrast, based on the latest DOE projection, by 2035, the US will have only 3 GW of coal capacity. Further, as US coal is wiped from the scene, nuclear is projected to remain flat and natural gas generation to decline.  Intermittent wind and solar capacity will increase from the current 32% to 46% while baseload capacity drops from 58% to 39% in just 10 years.  The track records of neither wind nor solar, especially in winter, do not merit this gamble.

China is playing the long game in making reliable and affordable baseload coal the foundation of their electrification plans. The US has no energy plan and is steadily developing an electric power system that will be increasingly expensive, less reliable and a risk to national security.

Germany is the prime example of missing the forest for the trees. Since 2015, the percentage of electricity generated from coal has fallen significantly and a complete phase out is planned in the next decade. Meanwhile, about 55% of Germany's electricity is generated by non-dispatchable renewables with these results: (1) Germany’s electricity rates are among the highest in the World as the cost to families is over 40 cents per kWh compared to 18 cents in America; (2) In December, only 18% of electricity was produced by renewables, coal stepped up to meet demand and imports  dramatically increased. If coal is gone, where would the US get imported power?  

Some in the industry may scoff at the EIA projections because President Trump’s recent legislation has taken several first steps to support coal and constrain dependence on intermittents.  But such complacency is dangerous indeed. The President’s term ends in 43 months. Will it be back to Business as Usual? Don’t forget, coal generating capacity has declined from almost 300 GW to 170 GW in the past decade. It is not much of a reach to see how 170 GW can turn into 3 GW in another 10 years.

America has 25% of the world’s coal. This resource is time-tested, secure, reliable, accessible, affordable, and distributed across more than 20 states. The infrastructure to produce, transport and convert coal to electricity is already in place. Clean coal technology is real. Coal’s capacity can be significantly increased with a few strokes of a pen. Yet, we continue to close coal plants - Why?

Well, the continuing “War against Coal” is an example of how politics is intruding on system planning. Jason Stanek, Director of Government Services at PJM, the nation’s largest Regional Transmission Organization covering 13 states and 65 million people, has stated the majority of coal retirements are due to policy and only a small percentage are the result of economics. 

Special interest groups hold sway. Multi-Billionaire Michael Bloomberg has committed $500 million to eliminate coal and his support for the Sierra Club’s “Beyond Coal” Campaign is clear: “We want to close all US coal plants”.  Almost 200 lawyers and organizers have been hired to litigate and work against coal. They attend local hearings, lobby regulators, give speeches, talk to classrooms, write editorials and have been markedly successful in demonizing coal. This group routinely boasts about the number of coal plants they have eliminated. But they ignore rising electric rates, the socioeconomic hardships from the closures and the increasing instability of the electric grid, as our most reliable fuel is shunted aside.

Since 2010, hundreds of coal mines and about 140 GW of coal power plants have been closed, most prematurely.  Coal based electricity has declined from 45% of power to 16%. Coal production has been cut in half. 

Warnings from the National Electric Reliability Council (NERC) decrying the continuing closure of still productive coal power plants have gone unheeded.  This concern has been echoed by Chris Wright, US Secretary of Energy:” We are on a path to continually shrink the electricity we generate from coal, and that has made electricity more expensive and our grid less stable.” 

But the beat goes on nevertheless, as more and more coal mines and power plants are slated to close over the next decade. Just this April, the DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that within 10 years coal generating capacity will drop 98%, less than 1% of electricity will be produced by coal and power plant consumption will decline from over 350 million tons to 27 million.

These projected decreases fly in the face of real-life experience. As we demonstrated in our last article, (https://www.coalzoom.com/article.cfm?articleid=40089), the value of coal-fired generation has already been demonstrated in a series of polar vortexes over 2014, 2019, 2021, 2024 and 2025. In each instance, coal power was the dominant incremental producer as solar’s contribution was largely irrelevant, wind underperformed and natural gas was diverted to residential and commercial space heating. Most recently, in the 2025 Vortex, coal plant capacity factors reached 70% while wind and solar were only able to generate 3% and .0.2% of the electricity needed to meet the load. Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) estimated coal saved customers up to $1.4 billion. And, regarding the 2024 Vortex, EVA had previously concluded: “Higher shares of solar facilities and fewer dispatchable resources likely would have resulted in widespread power outages “. Yet, DOE projects solar generating capacity will increase 250% by 2035 as dispatchable coal declines 98%.

The US faces unprecedented demand for electric power.  Power generation is projected to increase by 1,400 TWh by 2045-- more than six times the growth from 2004 to 2023. Where will the US get the energy required to meet this dramatic increase?  A crazy quilt of solar, wind and batteries will not reliably and affordably meet this burgeoning demand. China has already set the stage for an electrified future. Germany is paying the price for its lack of energy foresight—higher cost and lower reliability.

The US should leverage its greatest energy asset and (1) Keep existing coal plants operating and, where possible, increase their capacity, (2) Recommission closed plants that were prematurely and unnecessarily retired and (3) Build new plants using the advanced clean coal technologies being successfully employed in other parts of the world, especially China (e.g. Supercritical combustion).

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Note: Coal is the Cornerstone seeks to give a voice to supporters of coal in its many dimensions and contributions. But we need help and ask like-minded individuals and companies supporting coal to make a financial contribution to the effort. Visit us and donate at http://www.coaliscornerstone.com. Please contact Fred Palmer (vapalmers@aol.com) for details as to how you can support the fight for coal.

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Frank Clemente PhD Is Professor Emeritus at Penn State University. He specializes in research on the socioeconomic impact of energy policy and is the author of The Global Value of Coal, published by the International Energy Agency (2012). Professor Clemente has extensive experience in speaking, writing and presenting data on the value of coal to the United States and the world. All opinions expressed here are presented independently from the University.

Fred Palmer Esq. served as CEO of Western Fuels before he joined Peabody Energy as Senior Vice President for Government Affairs. Palmer was Chair of the World Coal Association Board and a member of the National Coal Council. He received the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers Award for “Distinguished Achievement in Coal Technology”.  He also received a Statement of Appreciation from the National Coal Council in 2015 with a plaque for “Guidance since 1990”.