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Should You Rethink Warrior Met Coal After a 26% Weekly Surge?

 

November 8, 2025 - 

  • Curious whether Warrior Met Coal is a hidden gem or overpriced? You’re not alone, and there’s a lot to consider when it comes to value.
  • The stock has caught plenty of attention after jumping 26.2% over the last week and 49.3% since the start of the year. This suggests both growth potential and shifting risk perceptions.
  • Much of the recent price surge can be traced to multiple news outlets spotlighting the company's robust steelmaking coal demand and updates on expansion projects. These headlines have fueled speculation about Warrior Met Coal’s long-term prospects and helped drive renewed investor enthusiasm.
  • When it comes to valuation, Warrior Met Coal currently scores a 2 out of 6 on our undervaluation checklist. Next, we will break down what that means using classic valuation methods, and at the end of the article, we will share an additional way to evaluate whether it is truly a bargain.
Warrior Met Coal scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
 
 
Approach 1: Warrior Met Coal Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
 
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to their present value. This approach aims to determine what the company's shares should be worth today, based on how much money it is expected to generate in the future.
 
For Warrior Met Coal, the most recent reported Free Cash Flow (FCF) was negative $141 million, but forecasts point to a swift turnaround. Analysts expect positive momentum, with FCF projected to reach $343 million by 2027. Simply Wall St extrapolates even further, estimating FCF could approach $549 million annually in 2035. These projections combine both analyst estimates for the next few years and longer-term trends based on company growth rates.
 
Using these estimates, the DCF model calculates an intrinsic value of $154.75 per share. Given this and factoring in the company's current share price, Warrior Met Coal appears to be trading at a 47.5% discount, suggesting substantial undervaluation at present levels.
 
Result: UNDERVALUED
 
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Warrior Met Coal is undervalued by 47.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 865 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
 
HCC Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

 

 

HCC Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

 

 

 
Approach 2: Warrior Met Coal Price vs Earnings (PE)
 
For profitable companies, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is often considered the most useful valuation tool. It tells us how much investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of a company's earnings. This makes it particularly meaningful when a business is consistently generating profits. A suitable PE ratio reflects the company's financial strength, growth outlook, and the level of risk involved.
 
Growth expectations and risk are key drivers of what a "normal" or "fair" PE ratio should look like. Fast-growing companies or those with stable, predictable earnings usually command higher PE multiples. Those facing uncertainty or slower growth typically trade at lower ratios.
 
Currently, Warrior Met Coal is trading at a PE ratio of 121.5x. This stands well above both the Metals and Mining industry average of 21.4x and the peer average of 32.9x. However, Simply Wall St calculates a Fair Ratio for Warrior Met Coal of 66.6x. The Fair Ratio is a more tailored benchmark that considers the company’s earnings growth, profit margin, risk profile, industry, and market cap. This provides a more rounded and accurate number than simply comparing to the sector or peers alone.
 
Comparing Warrior Met Coal’s actual PE (121.5x) to its Fair Ratio (66.6x) reveals the stock is currently trading well above what its fundamentals and risks would support, even after adjusting for growth and profit quality.
 
Result: OVERVALUED
 
NYSE:HCC PE Ratio as at Nov 2025

 

 

NYSE:HCC PE Ratio as at Nov 2025

 

 

 

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? 
 
 
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Warrior Met Coal Narrative
 
Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives, a smarter approach that puts your perspective at the center of investment decisions. A Narrative is your own story about a company, where you connect numbers (like future revenue, earnings, and margins) to the bigger picture you believe in, and then use those assumptions to calculate your fair value estimate.
 
Narratives bridge the gap between Warrior Met Coal’s business story and its financial outlook, letting you move beyond headlines or ratios and visualize how different scenarios play out in real numbers. The best part is that Narratives are simple. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, you can build, compare, and track your view versus millions of investors, all in one place.
 
This tool helps you decide whether Warrior Met Coal is a buy or sell by comparing your own fair value to the latest market price, and automatically updates your forecast as soon as new information such as news, results, or regulatory changes emerges.
 
For example, some investors see rapid expansion at Blue Creek and strong global steel demand, so their Narrative puts fair value as high as $75 per share. Others, worried about weak steel markets and capital risks, arrive at just $55. Your Narrative can help you quickly see where you fit along that spectrum.