November 8, 2025 - 

• US coal exports decreased by 11 percent during the first half of 2025, while Indonesia's exports fell by 12 percent.

• China's coal power production decreased by 4.7 percent and the country's emissions from electricity production fell by three percent in the first half of 2025.

• Coal prices have fallen by approximately 30 percent globally and renewable energy is becoming increasingly competitive with coal.

US coal exports decline

The United States exported 46.8 million short tons of coal during the first half of 2025. This represents a decrease of 11 percent compared to the same period the previous year, according to the US Census Bureau.

Exports of both steam coal and metallurgical coal decreased. Steam coal exports fell by 10 percent to 22.5 million short tons. Metallurgical coal decreased by 13 percent to 24.2 million short tons.

China buys less coal from the US

Reduced exports to China accounted for 73 percent of the decline in total US coal exports. The United States exported 4.4 million short tons less coal to China during the period.

China imposed a 15 percent additional tariff on imports of US coal in February 2025. In April, the country raised the tariff further to 34 percent.

The reduction in exports to China represented 76 percent of the decline for metallurgical coal and 68 percent of the decline for steam coal.

Global demand for coal drops

The global coal market is affected by falling prices. The reason is ample supply and weak demand for coal.

Coal prices have fallen by approximately 30 percent globally for key benchmarks. At the same time, renewable energy is becoming more competitive.

China's coal power production decreases

China's coal power generation fell by approximately 4.7 percent during the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This despite electricity demand increasing by one percent.

Total electricity production in China's grid decreased by only 1.3 percent. The difference is explained by renewable energy covering a larger share of electricity needs.

China's emissions from power production fell by three percent during the first half of 2025. Growth in solar energy compensated for the increase in electricity demand.

Indonesia hit hard

Indonesian coal companies exported approximately 150 million tons of thermal coal during the first four months of 2025. This is 12 percent less than the same period in 2024.

Both China and India, Indonesia's two largest coal customers, have reduced their imports. China due to increased domestic production and stricter environmental regulations. India for similar reasons plus stronger domestic alternatives.

Renewable energy becomes cheaper

Costs for solar panels, inverters and installation are falling in Indonesia. This makes solar energy increasingly competitive, especially for new generation capacity. At the same time, costs for coal mining are rising due to regulation, environmental requirements and increasingly remote locations.

Poland facilitates closure of coal mines

The Polish government has approved a bill to facilitate the closure of coal mines. The proposal includes financial support for miners who lose their jobs and assistance with redeveloping former mining areas.

The law would allow mining companies to close mines independently but with state financial backing. They can also transfer assets as donations to local authorities or state entities.

Poland is Europe's most coal-dependent country. Fossil fuels accounted for 57 percent of the country's electricity generation last year.

Australia faces tougher competition

China's national coal industry association expects imports of thermal coal to drop by 22 percent in 2025 compared to 2024. By 2030, imports are expected to decrease by more than one third.

In Southeast Asia, planning for new coal power plants has declined sharply in recent years. There is now ten times more renewable capacity and three times more gas capacity in the pipeline than coal capacity.