Coal Zoom | Inflation Reduction Act Cases in the AEO2023

Inflation Reduction Act Cases in the AEO2023

March 16, 2023 - EIA has presented alternative cases to the Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023) that vary the level of tax credits clean energy projects qualify for under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA offers a base investment and production tax credit that can be increased if projects are domestically produced, meet labor requirements, or are located in energy communities (former brownfield sites, areas with above-average unemployment rates, or areas that rely on fossil fuel industries for employment or tax revenue).

In this analysis, the Reference case includes the IRA and reflects our view of the most likely tax credit uptake. We evaluate the lower and upper bounds of the impacts of the tax credits incorporated in the Reference case by applying the lowest tax credits allowed in the Low Uptake case and the highest possible tax credits in the High Uptake case. The No IRA case includes the same economic, technology, and market outlooks as the other cases but excludes the IRA provisions.