April 11, 2024 - China’s continued coal construction surge in 2023 stands in stark contrast to these global trends and offsets gains from dwindling coal capacity elsewhere. 

China’s 70.2 GW of new construction starts in 2023 represents 19 times more than the rest of the world’s 3.7 GW and is the country’s highest annual capacity breaking ground since 2015. 

The new construction starts in China were also nearly quadruple what they were in 2019 when it hit a nine-year annual low of entirely new builds.

In 2023, coal capacity in development globally — including projects in the announced, pre-permit, permitted, and in construction phases — increased from 550.6 GW to 578.2 GW, a 5% increase driven by China.

Progress towards the last coal plant starting construction continues

The global coal landscape has been in transformation for almost a decade, marked by a collapse in the amount of planned coal power plants following the adoption of the Paris Agreement in late 2015. There has been a 68% reduction in global pre-construction capacity since then, and new construction starts are at their lowest outside of China since data collection began.

The past year has seen the OECD and EU continue to progress in their journey away from coal. The operating coal fleet and the pre-construction capacity in the OECD/EU have both declined in 2023, continuing the downward trend since the Paris Agreement.

The total pre-construction capacity is now at 7.1 GW, the lowest level since data collection began for the region. Only four countries, Australia, Japan, Türkiye, and the United States, are still considering coal projects. Türkiye has had seven planned projects put on hold in 2023, but it still accounts for 68% of the planned capacity in the OECD/EU and remains the only OECD country in the global top ten.

Climate concerns, unfavorable economics, and public opposition continue to close the door on many coal plant proposals — and close actual doors at some coal plants. In 2023, twelve new countries committed to No New Coal by becoming members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA). 

As of January 2024, 101 countries have either formally committed to No New Coal or have abandoned any coal plans they had in the last decade. This shows a growing awareness of the need to shift to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, even in places where coal has previously been a major part of the energy mix.

Almost all countries have reduced their announced, pre-permit, permitted, and construction coal capacity since 2015. Only six countries have increased coal power capacity under development since 2015, and the biggest increase did not exceed 3 GW. In contrast, coal power capacity under development in China, India, and Türkiye decreased by more than 300 GW, 200 GW, and 50 GW, respectively, between 2015 and 2023.

Which countries are still planning more coal?

China and India, the two largest coal consumers globally, continue to substantially influence the global coal narrative, collectively accounting for 82% of the total pre-construction capacity (announced, pre-permit, and permitted) worldwide. 

Outside of China and India, pre-construction capacity is currently at its lowest since data collection began, but growth in these two countries resulted in the total global capacity in pre-construction increasing by 6% in 2023.

This significant concentration highlights China’s increasing dominance in coal capacity development. 

China and ten other countries account for 95% of coal power capacity under consideration

Coal-fired power capacity in pre-construction stages (announced, pre-permit and permitted)

Along with China, ten other countries — India, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Laos, Türkiye, Russia, Pakistan, and Vietnam — collectively account for 95% of this capacity. India accounts for nearly half of the planned capacity within these ten countries. 

The remaining 5% is distributed among 21 countries, eleven of which have only one project and are on the brink of achieving the “no new coal” milestone.

Thankfully, various countries are making clear that shutting coal down is possible, and most of the world is closing in on “no new coal.” Of 82 countries with coal power, 47 have reduced or kept operating capacity flat since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Austria, Belgium, Sweden, Portugal, Peru, and the United Arab Emirates have retired or converted their last operating coal plants, while Slovakia, the U.K., and potentially others are projected to join them in 2024.