Authors: Frank Clemente PhD. and Fred Palmer, Esq., Principals, Coal Is the Cornerstone, Inc.

April 2, 2025 - Mission: This is the second in a series of articles from Coal is the Cornerstone, Inc. identifying and documenting the societal value of coal.

The United States is steadily developing an electric power system that will be increasingly expensive, less reliable and a risk to national security. Warnings from the National Electric Reliability Council (NERC) decrying the continuing closure of still productive coal power plants have gone unheeded. Just last December NERC stated:

“Additional coal-fired generator retirements… have caused a sharp decline in anticipated resources beginning next summer (2025) … new generation is insufficient to make up for generator retirements and load growth”

This concern has been echoed by Chris Wright, US Secretary of Energy:

” We are on a path to continually shrink the electricity we generate from coal, and that has made electricity more expensive and our grid less stable.” 

For over a century, coal power plants have been America’s greatest energy asset. Coal-based generation enabled the Rural Electrification Act of 1936, which brought power to farms, villages and towns across the Nation and propelled the most efficient agricultural system in the world. Coal power enabled the rise of cities, mass production, modern communication systems, air conditioning, refrigeration, irrigation, advances in medicine, household appliances and literally thousands of other accoutrements of contemporary life.

Coal plants have proven their value to the economic foundation of the US by not only increasing the quality of life of the population but also enhancing the ability of American businesses to compete and succeed at the global level. Low cost and reliable electricity from coal brought American manufacturing to the center of the world’s economic stage.

Over the past two decades, however, political pressures, short-sighted regulatory policies and anti-coal hyperbole have led to the closure of many efficiently operating coal plants well before their time. Environmental extremism myopically ignores the impact of higher electricity prices and risk of outages. Meanwhile, self-serving assaults from competing energy industries routinely skip over coal’s advantages of abundance, accessibility, versatility, cost, sustainability and reliability. As a result of these pressures, the capacity of the US coal fleet has declined from about 300 gigawatts (GW) in 2014 to less than 175 GW now— more than a 40 % decrease. In concert, coal’s electricity production has gone from over 1,550 Gigawatt hours (GWh) to about 650 GWh in 2024 – a 55% decrease.  As a result, the national price of electricity has increased by almost a third in the past decade. But this is only the tip of the iceberg. In states which have totally abandoned coal-based electricity, costs have skyrocketed. In the last 20 years, the price of electricity to homeowners has gone up almost 85% in Massachusetts and over 110% in California.

And now, based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the next 5 years as many as 40 GW of coal-based generation will be eliminated-25% of the existing fleet. In short, the US has already dug itself into a hole but keeps digging, nevertheless.

The US does not have an energy plan so policies as to energy development have been typically made at the state or regional level. Thus, decisions on power plants are often made on ad hoc political grounds rather than to facilitate the development of a smoothly functioning “system”.  Special interest groups frequently dominate the conversation and politicians and regulators have difficulty looking at the big picture. Thus, the US lacks a coherent approach to generation and delivery. As Aaron Bloom, Executive Director of NextEra Energy Transmission, warned:


“The United States is the only macro grid in the world that doesn't have a plan of any type.”

At least two thirds of power generation proposed to be retired from 2024 -2028 is coal. This continuing bias against coal is an example of how politics is intruding upon system planning. Jason Stanek, Director of Government Services at PJM, the nation’s largest Regional Transmission Organization covering 13 states, has stated at least 60% of planned coal retirements are due to politics and only 8% are the result of economics. 

Electricity consumption is increasing in the US and is projected to continue to rise. Demand growth from data centers, electric vehicles, industrial sector rebound, and associated electrification is real and ongoing. Tyler Norris at Duke University’s School of the Environment, has projected Data Centers alone could  account for over 40% of US electricity load growth through 2028. Such substantial increases require a comprehensive and unbiased plan to manage new load and ensure reliable, affordable, and clean energy. 

For decades the terms fuel diversity, dispatchability, redundancy and resiliency have been the hallmark concepts of utility system planners. In recent years, however, these goals have become more remote.  The closure of productive coal plants is significantly weakening the key pillar of reliable power - coal. NERC has already cautioned that several regions of the country (e.g. the Midwest) may not be able to meet the load. Costs may also rise dramatically due to an over dependence on natural gas -- certainly the fuel with the highest price volatility.  In February 2024 the Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price per Million Btu was $1.72.  By February 2025 the cost of NG was $4.19, an increase of almost 145% in just 12 months.

Consider New England, where fuel diversity has fallen by the wayside and a practically monolithic fuel structure has developed in several states. Connecticut obtains 60% of its electricity from natural gas. In Rhode Island the figure is 85% and in Massachusetts 70%. As Housley Carr, of RBN Energy points out: New England electricity and natural gas prices typically peak during the winter months. At that point, much of the gas flowing into New England is used for space heating, frequently leaving many gas power plants with only a fraction of what they need to meet demand.  In January 2025, when the region experienced an extended cold snap, wholesale natural gas prices (a major factor in electricity prices) averaged $16.92 per million Btu— a dramatic 300% higher than the average Henry Hub cost of $4.13 that month. Lack of fuel diversity exacts a high price indeed.

Fortunately, at least some people in the energy industry, government and public at large are increasingly aware of how the indiscriminate closure of coal plants is leading to a less reliable, more expensive and less secure electric power system -- especially in the face of ever-increasing demand for electricity.  Over the next five years, U.S. electricity demand is expected to grow by almost 16%, according to Grid Strategies. 

In the next report in this series, we will discuss how coal power plants are essential to meeting that new load and what can be done to facilitate their contribution. Simply put: (1) Keep existing plants operating and, where possible, increase their capacity, (2) Recommission closed plants that were prematurely and unnecessarily retired and (3) Build new plants using the advanced clean coal technologies being successfully employed in other parts of the world (e.g. Supercritical combustion).

Note: Coal is the Cornerstone, Inc. seeks to at least partially fill the void left by the Biden dismissal of the National Coal Council and give a voice to supporters of coal in its many dimensions and contributions. Those speaking for coal are often shouted down, ridiculed and ignored by extremists pushing their own version of what reality should be. Put bluntly, coal has been demonized to the point where few individuals or organizations now speak in favor of its use. Competing energy industries routinely bash the coal industry in self-serving accusations and misinformation. Supporters need to aggressively reinsert coal into the dialogue of energy in United States and abroad. After all, coal continues as a crucial enabler of electrification, construction and communication. It is not for nothing that global coal consumption in 2024 increased to an all-time high of over 9.5 billion short tons.

Frederick D. Palmer Esq. focusses on advancing coal utilization to produce electricity and steel throughout the world. He has served as Senior Vice President of Peabody Energy and CEO of Western Fuels Association. He received the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers Award for “Distinguished Achievement in Coal Technology”.  

Frank Clemente PhD. specializes in research on the socioeconomic impact of energy policy. Professor Clemente has served on the faculties of Penn State University, the University of Wisconsin and the University of Kentucky. He is the author of The Global Value of Coal, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2012).