April 10, 2025 - The ongoing closure of dispatchable coal power plants in the United States has put the reliability of electricity systems at risk. In March, the seven regional organizations responsible for maintaining the reliable operation of the electrical grid were virtually unanimous in testimony before the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee. Manu Asthana, CEO of PJM (covers 67 million people) stated: “dispatchable generators- those generators that can quickly respond regardless of weather, are retiring at a rapid pace largely due to state and federal policies.” Lanny Nickell CEO of Southwest Power Pool (13 states) added: “these retirements have tightened our supply margins and almost exponentially increased reliability risks… a large amount of around-the-clock generation was retired and largely replaced with weather-dependent resources” (i.e. wind and solar).

These warnings were echoed by the National Electric Reliability Council (NERC) last December:

“Additional coal-fired generator retirements… have caused a sharp decline in anticipated resources beginning next summer (2025) … new generation is insufficient to make up for generator retirements and load growth”

The messages here are that wind and solar are intermittent and cannot provide the 24/7 supply needed in an advanced technological society. Natural gas is the most price volatile fuel, which only last year ranged from $1.72 per million BTU to $4.20, an increase of 145% in just 12 months. And even optimistic projections of nuclear power recognize the formidable obstacles of cost, opposition and a defunct supply chain.

Given these constraints on other fuels, the US needs to expand coal-based  generation capacity to stabilize the grid and meet significant growth in power demand over the next two decades.  This expansion should take place along several dimensions: (1) Keep existing plants operating and, where possible, increase their capacity, (2) Recommission recently closed plants that were prematurely retired and (3) Build new plants using the advanced clean coal technologies being successfully employed in other parts of the world (e.g. Supercritical combustion) and even in the US (e.g. Prairie State in Illinois)

Unfortunately,  we are  steadily marching toward an electricity infrastructure that is more expensive, less reliable and a risk to national security. And since the US has no energy plan, it’s been largely left to the individual states to make ad hoc decisions. These localized decisions are typically mired in politics, hyperbole and extremism.

For decades, the words reliability, fuel diversity, dispatchability, and affordability were hallmarks of utility system planning. These goals no longer appear to be  paramount. Indeed, one of the fundamental concepts in making utility system policies is rarely heard these days—Prudence. In efforts to ensure electricity supply, system planners and regulatory commissions developed standards of prudence in assessing the efficacy of energy planning decisions. This widely accepted doctrine dismisses decisions based on chronologically constrained data, untested hypotheses, guesses or wishful thinking and strives to base policies on caution, probability, experience and empirical reality. In many states, this time-honored concept has clearly fallen by the wayside. 

There is no better example of the erosion of prudence than the almost willy-nilly closure of coal plants throughout the Country. For a century, coal power plants were the foundation of reliable and affordable electricity, improving the lives of Americans and giving businesses a competitive edge on the world’s economic stage.

Over the last 15 years, however, what amounts to a “war on coal” has led to an ongoing attrition of coal plants that increasingly jeopardizes the ability of utilities to meet the load. In 2010, about 315 GW of coal capacity were available and those plants accounted for 45% of the load. By 2025, capacity has dropped to about 175 GW and coal meets only 16% of the load.   Based on EIA projections, capacity will continue to erode by another 34 GW by 2029.  But the actual decline may be far more profound. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has argued the EIA data are limited since they rely only on utility surveys and ignore: (a) public announcements made by the companies, (b) financial filings at the SEC, (c) long-term resource plans submitted to state regulators and (d) coal-to-gas conversions since the plant is technically not being retired. Based on these differences, IEEFA argues coal capacity by 2030 will drop to 115 GW - a staggering decrease of 200 GW in just two decades. 

As noted earlier, such trends have caused consternation among groups focusing on adequacy of power supply and, indeed, for anyone interested in reliable and affordable electricity. Perhaps even more importantly, the major Grid Operators, responsible for maintaining the reliable and secure functioning of transmission, have increasingly raised concerns that the loss of reliable coal generation could have widespread negative impacts on the population as well as the economy. These operators realize they face dramatic increases in the demand for electricity over the next two decades. For instance, PJM planners project demand will increase 45% over 15 years due to” large data centers” and the “electrification of the transportation and heating sectors.”

Similarly, Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO ), which serves 45 million people, and projects a 60% demand increase in the next two decades has warned: “The rapid retirement of existing coal and gas power plants threatens to outpace the ability of new resources with the necessary operational characteristics to replace them … while the total amount of installed electric generation will increase significantly over the next 20 years due to the rapid growth of wind and solar, the actual amount of electricity available to the system during critical hours could decline by about 32 GW due to the operational characteristics of these new resources.”

In other words, replacing power from coal plants with intermittent wind and solar is presenting major risks to the system. And the beat goes on. In 2025- 2026, EIA projects solar will comprise 51% of capacity additions, wind 16%, battery 29% and gas only 2%. Coal capacity is projected to decline by 7%, further exacerbating the withering of dispatchable power and raising grave concerns among system planners.

Waking Up At Last?

In his March 25 testimony before House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy, PJM CEO Manu Asthana stated:  “With tightening supply conditions, we encourage all generation owners who have signaled an intent to retire their units to reconsider their decision”   It appears President Trump was listening and has now signed executive orders to bolster the coal industry and enable a number of power plants to stay open.  Based on Biden Administration regulations more than 120 coal-fired generating units would be closed within the next five years.

Even before President Trump’s orders, however, reality has been coming to the fore. Utilities, of course, are well aware of the need to maintain coal capacity and generation. Companies like Duke Energy, Georgia Power, PacifiCorp, are just a few of the utilities which have delayed coal plant closures. Chris Hamilton, President of the West Virginia Coal Association, estimates more than 40 coal-fired power plants previously scheduled for closure this year now plan to remain open.

As Montauk Climate’s CIO Evan Caron has pointed out, the continued operation of  productive coal plants “reflects a pragmatic response to surging power demands … When Georgia Power and Duke Energy announced extensions of their coal operations, they weren’t just buying time … they were acknowledging a fundamental shift in our energy landscape” 

Not So Fast

But critics of these supportive policies are relentless opponents of coal. Collusions against coal abound in the mainstream press:

Trump pumps coal  but any boost could be short-lived - Associated Press

Trump wants ‘clean coal’ but there’s no such thing-ABC News

Trump Administration plans to give dirty US coal plants a reprieve-Reuters

Trump gave the dying coal industry a lifeline-Washington Post

These knee-jerk reactions demonstrate that efforts to ensure that coal continues and expands its role in the energy landscape face deep, and often emotional, hostility.  At Coal is the Cornerstone, Inc., we seek to give a voice to proponents of coal in its many dimensions and contributions. Those speaking for coal are often shouted down, ridiculed and cavalierly ignored by extremists pushing their own version of what reality should be. Organizations and individual supporters need to aggressively reinsert coal into the dialogue of energy in United States and abroad. After all, coal continues as a crucial enabler of electrification, construction and communication. It is not for nothing that global coal consumption in 2024 increased to an all-time high of over 9.5 billion short tons.