April 24, 2025 - US coal-fired generating capacity would see a steep drop in 2031 and bottom out by 2033 if the US Environmental Protection Agency's rule governing power plant CO2 emissions were to stay in effect, according to the latest US Energy Information Administration modeling.

Data from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook, released April 15, shows a sharp divergence in US coal-fired generating capacity between two major projection scenarios: a reference case that assumes regulations as of December 2024, including EPA's power plant rule, and an "alternative electricity" scenario assuming rules in effect prior to April 2024, when EPA implemented the power plant regulation.

Under EIA's reference case, which includes the EPA rule, coal-fired capacity, which averaged about 168 GW in 2024, would decline to about 62.6 GW in 2031 before dropping to about 3.4 GW by around 2046. In this reference case, coal-fired generating capacity would nearly zero out at 0.61 GW by around 2046.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said in March that he plans to repeal the Biden-era power plant rule—an effort expected to take years to reach its legal conclusion.

By contrast, without the rule, coal-fired capacity would decline along a more gradual trajectory, reaching about 58.8 GW at the end of the projection period, which runs to 2050.

When it released this year's outlook, the EIA highlighted one major trend: US energy consumption is expected to decrease over the near term before increasing again in the early 2040s through 2050.

The agency released the outlook without a lengthy analysis of trends across commodities, citing a changing policy environment.

"The projections in AEO2025 reflect laws and regulations that were in place in as of December 2024, which is a fairly typical cutoff date for us as we prepare the AEO," EIA spokesperson Chris Higginbotham said in am email.

The agency modeled multiple scenarios, including high and low economic growth; high and low oil prices; high oil and gas supplies; two carbon technology cost cases; and an alternative transportation case modeled without recent vehicle economy and emissions rules.

Reflecting the change in direction of the Department of Energy's leadership, the DOE said in a statement that the report reflects "the consequences of the Biden administration's short-sighted energy policies."

"Today's report from EIA reflects the disastrous path for American energy production under the Biden administration—a path that was soundly rejected by the American people last November," said DOE spokesperson Andrea Woods.

"Under President Trump's leadership, the [DOE] is charting a new way forward for America's energy future that promotes greater consumer choice, ensures the US has the power to lead the world in AI development, and expands economic growth fueled by American energy dominance."

Under the reference case, which assumes late 2024 rules, total US natural gas use would peak in 2032 at 31.2 quadrillion Btu and decline to about 26.6 quads in 2039.

US crude production is expected to peak in 2027 under the reference, alternative transportation, and alternative electricity cases, but the rollback of vehicle efficiency standards envisioned under the alternative transportation case means US production reaches a higher apex and declines at a lower rate.