By Frank Clemente and Fred Palmer, Coal is the Cornerstone,Inc.

April 25, 2025 - Energy is the foundation of national security and Coal has been, is, and will continue to be the cornerstone of that foundation. The idea that coal-based energy can be sustainably replaced by other sources in a period of unprecedented rising demand for electricity is a myopic policy built on a shaky collection of hypotheses, idealism, political suasion and wishful thinking. Rather, coal is the fuel most capable of meeting an uncertain energy future in an ever more dangerous international environment.

Over the past 15 years, what can only be described as a “War against Coal” has systematically reduced the role of our most reliable and time-tested source of electricity. But with very benign growth in power demand, coupled with massive subsidies for renewables and the emergence of hydraulic fracturing for natural gas drilling, coal has been edged aside as its role in generation dropped from 44% in 2010 to just 16% today. But steady growth in the demand for electricity, along with the increasingly obvious limitations of other sources, will inevitably bring coal back off the bench.

With the rise of data centers, electric vehicles, heat pumps, electrolyzers, air conditioners, cryptocurrency, and an overall societal push for electrification, EIA projects generation to increase from about 4,176 GWh in 2025 to over 5,600 GWh in 2044. This rise of 1,400 GWh in the next 20 years is more than six times the growth in power generation from 2004 to 2023. To give a better idea of scale, this increase alone is more than the current electricity generation of Germany, France and the UK combined .

Where will the US get the energy required to meet this dramatic increase in electricity demand over the next two decades? Consider the alternatives in the context of national security:

Solar-China controls over 75% of solar panel production and almost 80% of the silicon needed to produce them.  China’s share of global polysilicon, ingot and wafer production is close to 95%. Given current technology, solar energy is only possible with polysilicon. While the US imports about two-thirds of its PV modules from Southeast Asia, many of the manufacturing facilities there are owned by Chinese companies. 

Wind-China has 60% of the world's turbine production capacity compared to 19% in Europe and less than 10% in the US (where capacity is declining).  Furthermore, according to Wood Mackenzie, Chinese turbine manufacturers also lead in product design and innovation. In the last four years more than 400 new Chinese turbine models were released, compared to less than 30 new models elsewhere. 

Large battery energy storage systems (BESS) are increasingly important in stabilizing America’s energy grids, but the US relies heavily on Chinese imports for BESS components. China processes about two thirds of the world’s mined lithium and has a significant role in processing other battery related minerals. Also, even when processing occurs elsewhere, China is a key player in the supply chain for the processing equipment.

Critical materials for advanced energy production are dominated by China which just this April imposed retaliatory tariffs on samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium and others. Such rare earths play essential roles in industries such as renewable energy, data storage, and nuclear power. For example, consider the importance of dysprosium, a critical component in neodymium-iron-boron magnets.  These magnets enable higher efficiency and durability and are particularly used in wind turbines and operations requiring high temperatures. These magnets are doped with dysprosium to enable thermal stability in electric motors. China controls 99% of the global supply of dysprosium.  Michael Barnard, of Clean Technica, has warned dysprosium is “the spinal cord of electrification, and right now China’s holding the vertebrae”. Indeed, manufacturers of energy related products are already starting to warn that shortages of rare earths are impacting production plans.

Natural Gas -- has made a real contribution to reliable and affordable power in the United States. The new technology of fracking opened up gas reserves that were not accessible even three decades ago. Natural gas to produce power increased 75% from 2010 to 2024. Like coal, natural gas is a domestic resource adding to secure energy for the future. But evidence is increasing that the natural gas supply is geologically constrained and beset with a decline rate that necessitates constant drilling and a search for new locations.  This “Red Queen” effect is already showing up in natural gas production as operators are increasingly forced to move beyond Tier 1 drilling locations. In addition, natural gas is the most price volatile fuel, which only last year ranged from $1.72 per million BTU to $4.20, an increase of 145% in just 12 months. Finally, competition for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is becoming increasingly intense. Europe, Asia and other parts of the world are looking to the US to supply LNG and producers are rapidly ramping up export facilities to take advantage of this opportunity.

Given these issues it is increasingly clear that utilities are looking askance at adding even more natural gas to their generation fleet. In fact, the EIA projects at least a 25% decline in natural gas generation by 2045.

Nuclear- since 1990, only two new projects have been started: the Vogtle reactors in Georgia, with the first reactor online in 2023 and the second in 2024, and the VC Summer project in South Carolina, which was later abandoned. The two Vogtle reactors were beset with construction problems, significant delays and cost overruns. The final cost was $35 billion, 2.5 times the projected price. Given this history over the past 35 years, it is difficult to see nuclear making a major contribution in the next 20 years, potentially Small Modular Reactors notwithstanding.

Coal Means Energy Security--The four major components of energy security are (1) availability, (2) accessibility, (3) affordability and (4) sustainability. Coal in the US has a demonstrated track record of reliably meeting all four of these criteria. In terms of availability, the US has the largest recoverable coal reserves in the world, estimated at around 250 billion short tons, enough to last over 400 years at current production levels. These vast reserves are readily accessible with significant deposits distributed across 20 states and an established transportation system to reach every corner of the country. Coal has proven affordability and the low energy prices it creates enabled American businesses to move to the center of the world economic stage. Finally, coal is sustainable through each of the above but especially through the abundance of domestic reserves that will last for centuries. The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines energy security as “The uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price.”  In that context, no other energy source in the world can stand against coal.

Note: Coal is the Cornerstone seeks to give a voice to supporters of coal in its many dimensions and contributions. But we need help and ask like-minded individuals and companies supporting coal to make a financial contribution to the effort. Please contact Fred Palmer (vapalmers@aol.com) for details as to how you can support the fight for coal.

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Frank Clemente PhD Is Professor Emeritus at Penn State University. He specializes in research on the socioeconomic impact of energy policy and is the author of The Global Value of Coal, published by the International Energy Agency (2012). Professor Clemente has extensive experience in speaking, writing and presenting data on the value of coal to the United States and the world. All opinions expressed here are presented independently from the University.

Fred Palmer served as CEO of Western Fuels before he joined Peabody Energy as Senior Vice President for Government Affairs. Palmer was Chair of the World Coal Association Board and a member of the National Coal Council. He received the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers Award for “Distinguished Achievement in Coal Technology”.  He also received a Statement of Appreciation from the National Coal Council in 2015 with a plaque for “Guidance since 1990”.