April 30, 2025 - The Liberal Party of Canada won the federal election on April 28, paving the way for another Liberal minority government that has promised quicker permitting, new incentives and infrastructure funding for the country's mining sector.

The Liberals were on track to secure 168 seats in parliament, or just four shy of the 172 needed to form a majority government. The second-place Conservative Party of Canada looks to have secured 144 seats.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, who leads the left-leaning Liberals and won his Ottawa-area seat, outlined pro-mining policies on the campaign trail similar to those of the right-leaning Conservatives. In the run-up to the election, industry participants and experts told Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, that a win by either party would be good for miners.

Now, a fresh Liberal minority government will put that view to the test as Canada grapples with punishing US tariffs and aggressive rhetoric from President Donald Trump, who has questioned Canadian sovereignty.

"Regardless of party, the pendulum is clearly swinging in favor of more pragmatic policies toward the miners," David Harquail, chair of royalty and streaming giant Franco-Nevada Corp., told Platts. "Tougher economic times will only increase the appeal of a domestic mining industry. Think how important gold mining was to communities during the depression."

Minerals in spotlight

The Liberal campaign outlined a slew of policies aimed at mining and exploration. Broadly speaking, the Carney campaign said it will create energy and trade corridors to boost Canada's economy by fast-tracking projects like mines producing metals and minerals the government deems "critical."

Carney also promised faster permitting by decreasing duplication between federal, provincial and territorial governments, and creating new funds to back critical minerals crucial to clean energy. This included a First and Last Mile fund (FLMF) set to connect mining projects to supply chains to create "a more integrated and accessible Canadian economy," according to a Liberal campaign document.

Canada has vast and lucrative metals and minerals, but many deposits are located in remote regions, making development expensive — sometimes prohibitively so.

Carney's campaign said the FLMF will reduce Canada's reliance on imports, protect Canadian jobs, and boost exploration and recycling. During the campaign, Carney also extended tax credits for exploration and lowered "critical" mineral content thresholds for some government incentives.

Further, the Liberal campaign said a Carney government would flag projects of national interest in partnership with provinces and territories for quicker development.

"We'll be focusing on the Liberals' campaign commitments, particularly the very substantial tax measures they proposed," Pierre Gratton, president and CEO of the Mining Association of Canada, said in an email.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce told Platts in an emailed statement that Canada needs to lower internal trade barriers as Carney has promised, cut taxes and red tape and boost infrastructure.

"It's time to pair our economic strategy with concrete action to not only minimize the short-term damage of these tariffs and trade policies but to chart a more prosperous path long-term," Candace Laing, president and CEO of the business association, said in the emailed statement.

Canada first

Carney struck a patriotic tone in an early morning speech April 29 and reiterated the need for Canada to seize economic opportunity, build more houses and expand trade with new partners to counter increasing US protectionism.

"As I've been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. Never," Carney said. "But these are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, ever happen."

Carney said Canada is at a pivotal moment in its history and that the long, close trading relationship that saw tighter economic integration with the US has ended.

"The system of open global trade anchored by the United States — a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades — is over," Carney said. "These are tragedies. But it's also our new reality. We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons."

The Liberal campaign could not immediately be reached for comment.

Trump's hard-hitting tariffs on most US imports and repeated musings that Canada should become the 51st state, along with other aggressive rhetoric, became a central theme of the Canadian election. The focus shifted away from other issues like inflation and housing costs, and meanwhile Liberal popularity surged after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down.

Carney also cut the unpopular consumer tax on carbon emissions, launched by Trudeau, while keeping an industrial tax on the climate-warming pollution. The tax had been a central part of Conservative Pierre Poilievre's push against the governing Liberals under Trudeau.

Still, the Conservatives did well, increasing their seat count and capturing nearly as much of the popular vote as the Liberals. The Liberals got 43.5% of the national vote against 41.4% for the Conservatives with 99.16% of polls reporting, according to Elections Canada.

Support for other parties, notably the New Democratic Party, slipped, likely benefiting the Liberals as left-leaning voters rallied under Carney's banner to oppose a potential Conservative government. Poilievre lost his seat but said in a concession speech that he planned to continue fighting for the party.