By Bernard Weinstein

June 8, 2025 - Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecasts that an above-average number of cyclones will develop offshore during the November-April cyclone season, posing a greater threat than usual to the country's LNG, iron ore, coal, petroleum and agricultural assets.

The BoM also upgraded its La Nina watch to an alert, increasing its expectation of La Nina to a 70pc chance from last month's 50pc chance. This increases the likelihood a wetter-than-average October-April in eastern and northern Australia, as well as adding to the possibility of above-average cyclone activity in Australia's cyclone-prone areas of northern Western Australia (WA), Queensland and the Northern Territory (NT) in 2020-21.

A wetter-than-normal wet season in Queensland, New South Wales and WA can lead to flooding that can significantly disrupt coal mining and railing, as well as onshore gas production. While in general a wetter spring and summer is good for crop and livestock production, flooding can be damaging.

The first cyclone usually makes landfall in Australia in early January, but La Nina may bring this forward into 2021.

Cyclones often cause disruption to shipments of iron ore, grain, livestock, LNG and petroleum from northern WA and the NT. Ports, rail, mines and processing infrastructure are all prone to disruption by the cyclonic weather.

The chances of elevated cyclonic activity are highest in eastern Australia, where major coal export facilities and the Gladstone LNG export hub are located. Cyclone Debbie, which hit east Australia's Queensland coast in late March 2017, cut coking coal exports to 3.43mn t in April 2017 from 9.76mn t in March 2017 and 9.65mn t in April 2016, which contributed to a spike in coking coal prices to above $300/t fob Australia. This could be particularly disruptive to the market given record metallurgical and thermal coal prices currently.

Queensland's coal ports of Abbot Point, Dalrymple Bay, Hay Point and Gladstone are all within the cyclone-prone region, with each having had to close and order vessels out to sea in previous years because of cyclones. The state's rail network is also prone to damage and disruption by cyclones and flooding.

The second-highest probability is in northern WA, which houses the nation's major iron ore export hubs and significant LNG and petroleum export facilities. Cyclone Veronica that hit the WA coast in March 2019 reduced iron ore shipments for a couple of months and forced most major producers to cut guidance.

The risk of an above-average cyclone season for 2021-22 is 65pc, down slightly from 55pc in 2020-21 but up from 35pc in 2019-20 and 37pc for 2018-19, the BoM said. The annual number of tropical cyclones that form in the Australian region has decreased in recent decades, from an average of 11 in the 50 years since 1970 to an average of nine since 2000.