By Frank Clemente and Fred Palmer; Coal is the Cornerstone LLC.

July 13, 2025 - 

From the DOE “Resource Adequacy” Report, July 2025  

The “War Against Coal” has been markedly successful. Led by the Sierra Club’s “Beyond Coal” campaign and funded by elite billionaires like Michael Bloomberg, who has donated over $500 million to “close every coal plant”, this relentless attack on coal has put both the affordability and reliability of America’s electricity supply at risk. Thousands of lawyers, community activists and professional protesters have been deployed to confront regulators, badger utilities, file briefs, regularly attend hearings, do interviews, write editorials, march and demonstrate against coal. And it works. Many decisions on power plants are made at the utility or state level and the squeaky wheel gets the grease.  A hostile press and anti-coal Administrations haven’t helped.

Since 2010, coal production has dropped from 1,085 million tons to less than 500 million tons as hundreds of mines closed.  Over 300 coal power plants have been retired, most prematurely.  Electricity from coal has declined from 45% of power to 16% as coal plants have been required to reduce their production.  Ironically, when push comes to shove during a polar vortex, these same regulators routinely beg coal plants to increase generation because solar, wind and natural gas all underperform.  

But if you thought the past decade was bad for the coal industry, the worst may be yet to come. Written under the Biden administration, but published just this past April, the US Energy Administration’s 2025 Annual Energy Outlook projects that by 2035, coal generating capacity will drop from 170 GW to only 3 GW -a decline of 98%. Coal generation will drop from 650 billion kWh to 44 billion - less than one percent of US electricity. Coal production will decline from 500 million tons to 167 million and only 27 million tons will be used by coal power plants. 

Warnings against this dramatic decline in coal-based generation have been issued by some of the most knowledgeable power experts including the National Electric Reliability Council (NERC) as well as the Electric Power Markets responsible for reliability issues, e.g. the PJM Interconnection overseeing 13 states, D.C.  and 65 million people. In addition, Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated that "If we want to grow America's electricity production meaningfully… we have to stop closing coal plants”

Finally, most recently, and perhaps most importantly, the Resource Adequacy Report published last week by DOE under the Trump Administration presents the problem in stark reality: “ Absent decisive intervention, the Nation’s power grid will be unable to meet projected demand for manufacturing, re-industrialization, and data centers driving artificial intelligence”.

In other words, the Business-as-Usual case presented by the Biden Administration in April would not only be unsustainable, but reliability would be significantly impacted. For example, DOE found the consequences of Biden’s plan for the PJM system alone would result in a staggering 430 hours of outages per year. The current outage Reliability Standard is 2.4 hours. 

As we have mentioned several times in this series of articles, President Trump is only in office about 42 more months and whether it is back to business as usual is a major question. Just consider the dramatic difference between the Biden Administration’s Energy Outlook and the Trump Administration’s Resource Adequacy document. Published only three months apart, the first is based on untested hypotheses, while the second relies on empirical data. The coal industry is in a fight for its right to exist in the US, but even more importantly, electricity reliability and affordability for the American people are at risk. Simply put, we need more coal-based power in the US and should implement  policies to ensure reliable and affordable electricity for the next generation of Americans. Four viable steps will be important: :

1. Stop closing coal plants- The 2025 AEO projects at least 57 GW of coal capacity will retire by the end of the decade—an almost 40% drop. While President Trump can use his emergency authority and issue executive orders to explore ways to keep coal plants open, he cannot unilaterally force continued operation indefinitely. Regulators need to recognize that in every single Polar Vortex in this century, coal has been the number one source of incremental power. Where will that power come from if coal is removed from the scene?

2. Take off the handcuffs - Critics have cited the declining capacity factor of coal power plants. In 2010, the capacity factor of the coal fleet was 67%, but by 2024 it had dropped to 42%. This decrease has nothing to do with any flaw in coal power but is partly impacted by the Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) cavalierly adopted by a large number of states. RPS is a regulatory policy that requires utilities to get a prescribed percentage of their electricity from renewable energy sources, largely wind and solar. Hypocritically blaming coal for a declining capacity factor is like tying your dog to a fence and beating him because he can’t run. Coal’s capacity factor can be greatly increased by a stroke of a pen.

3. Un-retire coal plants – The wholesale closure of 300 power plants in just 15 years, coupled with plans to close hundreds more in the next decade appears to be a concerted effort to eliminate coal -- because that’s what it is. Many plants were closed prematurely because politics have steadily intruded on power system planning in the US. Jason Stanek, Director of Government Services at PJM, has argued that many coal plant retirements are due to policies and only a minority are based on economics.

4. Build Advanced Coal Plants - use clean coal technologies like Supercritical combustion being successfully employed in other parts of the world and even in the US (e.g. Prairie State in Illinois). The US seeks to compete with China regarding the development of artificial intelligence, associated data centers and the expansion of societal electrification for decades to come. The US has the lead now but America is increasingly allowing baseload power from coal to be replaced by intermittent (and inherently non-dispatchable) generation from solar and wind. While the US blithely closes its coal plants and moves to 3 GW of coal capacity, China is preparing for an electrified future with coal as the foundation: 

·  Announced 58 GW of coal capicity

·  Pre-permitting 37 GW

·  Permitted 121 GW

·  Under Construction 204 GW

As Clare Richardson, Fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, stated:   “China is deploying ultra-supercritical and supercritical coal technology, which can operate at higher temperatures and pressures (above 600°C and 30 MPa) to improve thermal efficiency and reduce coal consumption” In short, China leads the world in installing clean coal technology as the baseload for societal electrification for decades. The US, with 25% of the world’s coal, marches to the sidelines.

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Note: Coal is the Cornerstone seeks to give a voice to supporters of coal in its many dimensions and contributions. But we need help and ask like-minded individuals and companies supporting coal to make a financial contribution to the effort. Visit us and donate at http://www.coaliscornerstone.com. Please contact Fred Palmer (vapalmers@aol.com) for details as to how you can support the fight for coal.

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Frank Clemente PhD Is Professor Emeritus at Penn State University. He specializes in research on the socioeconomic impact of energy policy and is the author of The Global Value of Coal, published by the International Energy Agency (2012). Professor Clemente has extensive experience in speaking, writing and presenting data on the value of coal to the United States and the world. All opinions expressed here are presented independently from the University.

Fred Palmer Esq. served as CEO of Western Fuels before he joined Peabody Energy as Senior Vice President for Government Affairs. Palmer was Chair of the World Coal Association Board and a member of the National Coal Council. He received the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers Award for “Distinguished Achievement in Coal Technology”.  He also received a Statement of Appreciation from the National Coal Council in 2015 with a plaque for “Guidance since 1990”.