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U.S. Coal 2025: Demand Up 7% as Stocks Draw Down Ahead of 2026 Retirements

 

 

September 15, 2025 - As the U.S. coal market enters the shoulder season, we forecast U.S. coal consumption will fall to 34 million short tons (MMst) in September from 42 MMst in August. For 2H25, we expect that coal consumption will increase by 1% overall compared with 2H24.

This rise follows a 13% increase in coal consumption in the first half of the year on the heels of a cold winter. In total, we forecast that coal consumption will total 439 MMst in 2025, a 7% increase over 2024 that reflects the impact of higher natural gas prices and an overall increase in electric power demand.

On a regional basis, we forecast that coal consumption will increase in all four census regions in 2025 compared with 2024. In 2026, we expect coal consumption to fall to 424 MMst, as 6 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity is currently scheduled to retire in 2025.

 

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Our 2026 forecast for consumption is 7 MMst higher than we forecast in the August STEO and reflects increased use of coal for power in the eastern half of the country.

We forecast modest increases in coal consumption in the South and Northeast in 2026, which are more than offset by decreases in consumption in the Midwest and West census regions.

Our expected 7% increase in consumption in 2025 outpaces the 2% increase in coal production that we forecast for 2025. As a result, we expect end-of-year electric power coal stocks in 2025 to equal 106 MMst, a 17% decline from end-of-year stock levels in 2024. Most of the stock decline in 2025 occurs in the Midwest and South, which overlap with electricity markets where a large share of coal-fired power generation takes place in the United States.

In 2026, electric power stocks fall further to end the year at 92 MMst, as a 6% decline in production exceeds the 4% decline that we forecast in consumption. Most of the stock decline in 2026 also occurs in the Midwest and South census regions.