October 15, 2025 - Fitch Ratings expects coal producers with lower cost positions and relatively low debt levels to withstand a prolonged softer price environment after the sharp drop in coal prices since 2024.

Lower-cost peers Mongolian Mining Corporation (MMC) and Alliance Resource Partners L.P. are well placed to generate free cash flow even in a lower-for-longer coal market, although MMC’s cost position could deteriorate if it needs to export to markets outside of northern China.

Fitch downgraded higher-cost producers PT Indika Energy Tbk and Coronado Global Resources Inc. (CRN) in 2025 as lower prices coupled with high capex are expected to result in sustained weaker capital structures. CRN was downgraded multiple times this year to ‘CCC-‘ as losses and negative free cash flow stressed financial flexibility.

Fitch revised the Rating Outlook on Australian coking coal producer Golden Energy and Resources Pte. Ltd.'s ‘B+’ IDR to Negative from Stable in June 2025 due to elevated leverage resulting from lower coking coal prices and higher debt following an acquisition. These dynamics will limit the companies’ capacity to lower net leverage.

Fitch expects the financial profiles of most coal peers to remain adequate for their rating levels despite our outlook on coal prices. This view is underpinned by the strong cash balances accumulated by most entities while coal prices were exceptionally strong in 2021-2022, and limits to high borrowing from narrow access to capital as a result of ESG considerations.

The full report, “Global Coal Mining – Relative Peer Analysis,” is available at www.fitchratings.com or by clicking the link above.