November 9, 2025 - Coal is in a fight for its life and needs much more dynamic advocacy from the Industry if it is to survive as a viable source of electricity. Coal power plants in the United States are facing extinction and the companies which depend upon coal for revenue are in grave danger of losing their franchise, whether they recognize it or not. The harsh reality is that within a decade coal generating capacity is projected to be lower than that of Municipal Waste. If you think that is a ridiculous outcome, please look at Tables 9 and 16 in the US Department of Energy’s forecasts in its 2025 Annual Energy Outlook published just this past April. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/tables_ref.php
Over the last decade more than 300 coal plants have closed—many prematurely for political reasons. Consequently, electric rates for families have risen most in states abandoning coal (e.g. Massachusetts up 56%; California up 90%; New Jersey up 57%). Coal generating capacity has gone from 280 Gigawatts to just 162 GW and coal’s share of electricity generation has declined from 33% in 2015 to barely 16% today. Hundreds of mines have been closed, and coal production has declined from about 900 million tons in 2015 to an estimated 483 million this year - a decrease of over 45%.
But if you thought the past decade was bad for the coal industry, the worst is yet to come. The DOE Outlook projects that in just 5 years, by 2030, coal generating capacity will drop from 162 GW to only 69 GW -a decline of 57%. Coal will provide less than 8% percent of US electricity. Coal production will decline from 483 million tons to 310 million and only about half will be used by coal power plants. Many tens of thousands of jobs will be eliminated, and not just in the coal industry. In other words, based on DOE projections, coal power will be essentially wiped from the US energy landscape to be largely replaced by intermittent and non-dispatchable sources - solar and wind. Yet, the United States has 25% of the world’s coal.
President Trump has taken important substantive steps to support coal, but his term ends in 39 months and his authority to keep coal plants from closing is severely limited because it is a state issue. Thus, complacency won’t get it done. Coal supporters will have to get their hands dirty in states where their customers (coal plants) are on the ropes.
The “War Against Coal” is ongoing, pervasive, relentless and heavily funded. Multi-Billionaire Michael Bloomberg has committed $500 million to eliminate coal and his support for the Sierra Club’s “Beyond Coal” Campaign is clear: “We want to close all US coal plants”. As many as 200 lawyers and organizers have been hired to litigate and work against coal. These activists are a real and present danger to the coal industry as they swamp regulatory hearings at the state level because that’s where the battleground is. As an example of how anti-coal activists dominate hearings consider the number of groups suing to close J.H Campbell, one of the largest coal plants in Michigan: the Sierra Club, Earthjustice, Vote Solar, Public Citizen, Environmental Defense Fund, National Resources Defense Council, The Ecology Center, Urban Core Collective, Clean Air Task Force and other Anti-Coal groups. These intervenors exert great pressure on regulators, and it works. When a defense against this onslaught is mounted, it is typically sporadic, ad hoc and isolated. Thus, the battle goes on, and coal is losing. It is a state-by-state fight and companies which rely on coal cannot sit idly by as their role is steadily diminished. Just consider these tip of the iceberg examples of where power plants are scheduled to close within the next four years:
Michigan (2025) –the 1,420 MW J.H.Campbell Plant has a solid history of reliably producing electricity at affordable rates - especially during a polar vortex when wind and solar fail and natural gas prices explode. Originally scheduled for closure in 15 years, Consumers Energy wants to prematurely close the plant this year. Apparently, more money can be made through Federal subsidies like the “Inflation Reduction Act” than through continuing to supply affordable and reliable electricity. President Trump’s effort to protect the plant is challenged in court by an array of anti-coal activists. Closure would have far reaching impacts. For instance, over the past decade, Wyoming’s Black Thunder, the country’s second-largest coal mine, shipped more than 23 million tons to Campbell, obviously supporting railroads as well as the people of Michigan and Wyoming.
Maryland (2029) -- Brandon Shores is a productive 1,273 MW unit scheduled for retirement in the PJM Interconnection where reliability is at substantial risk because of an influx of demand from data centers. PJM members have already closed too many coal plants and families in states like New Jersey are paying the price. Moreover, in recent Polar Vortexes it has been coal, not renewables, that increased generation to protect the grid.
Tennessee (2026,2028) --Cumberland Plant has two units totaling 2,470 megawatts. Cumberland is the largest generating asset in the TVA coal fleet and produces 16 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity each year – enough to supply more than 1.4 million homes affordably and one of the main reasons families in Tennessee pay rates 25% below the national average.
Indiana (2028) – Rockport Generating Station has two units of 1,300 MW each. The 2,600 MW station has been a stalwart in providing reliable electricity for decades and is definitely being closed prematurely. One of the nation’s leading energy research firms, Energy Ventures Analysis, found that dispatchable coal plants like Rockport played a vital role in the January 2025 Polar Vortex in the central states. Coal’s capacity factors greatly increased while “wind and solar output declined due to adverse weather”. Further, “natural gas prices spiked from under $2/MMBtu in November to nearly $30/MMBtu…. coal’s stable fuel cost around $2.50/MMBtu…. without coal-fired generation, prices could have soared”.
And the beat goes on - Pennsylvania plans to retire all its coal plants by 2030 and additional closures include Intermountain PP in Utah. Stanton Energy Center in Florida, Both Comanche Plant and Craig Station in Colorado, Centralia Plant in Washington, J.K. Spruce in Texas , etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. The demise of coal-based electricity in the United States is on the horizon. The coal industry, from producers to suppliers, to transporters and more cannot afford to ignore the storm clouds which will sweep them away in just a few years.
Frank Clemente PhD. specializes in research on the socioeconomic impact of energy policy and is the author of The Global Value of Coal, published by the International Energy Agency (2012). Professor Clemente has served on the faculty of the University of Kentucky, University of Wisconsin and Penn State. He has extensive experience in speaking, writing and presenting data on the value of coal to the United States and the world. All opinions expressed here are presented independently from any university with which he has been affiliated.
Fred Palmer Esq. served as CEO of Western Fuels before he joined Peabody Energy as Senior Vice President for Government Affairs. Palmer was Chair of the World Coal Association Board and a member of the National Coal Council. He received the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers Award for “Distinguished Achievement in Coal Technology”. He also received a Statement of Appreciation from the National Coal Council in 2015 with a plaque for “Guidance since 1990”
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