December 23, 2025 - Peabody Energy (BTU) just laid out a long runway for CEO James Grech, keeping him in the top job until May 2028 and then shifting him into an advisory role through 2030.

See our latest analysis for Peabody Energy.

The leadership continuity message seems to be landing well with investors, with a strong year to date share price return and a robust 1 year total shareholder return suggesting momentum is still building despite coal market cyclicality.

If Peabody’s run has you rethinking where the next big moves could come from, it might be worth exploring aerospace and defense stocks as another pocket of the market that is seeing structural support and shifting sentiment.

But with the stock up sharply over the past year and analysts already lifting their targets, is Peabody still trading at a meaningful discount to its intrinsic value, or is the market already pricing in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 10.9% Undervalued

With Peabody Energy last closing at $30.70 against a narrative fair value near the mid 30s, the current setup implies material upside if the projections land.

Company-wide investments in cost control, operational efficiency, and asset optimization are consistently driving costs per ton below guidance while maintaining robust liquidity, supporting EBITDA resilience and providing flexibility for shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, which in turn are expected to drive EPS growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady volume growth, fatter margins, and a compressed future earnings multiple can still point to upside from here? The narrative numbers might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $34.47 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the accelerating global shift toward renewables and mounting regulatory scrutiny on coal emissions could quickly weaken demand assumptions and compress Peabody’s projected margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Peabody Energy narrative.

Build Your Own Peabody Energy Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers on your own terms, you can build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Peabody Energy.

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