By Carly Fields 

January 8, 2026 - The global coal trade landscape is edging towards a significant recalibration, marked by a decisive shift from years of expansion toward a structural plateau. According to the International Energy Agency’s latest analysis Coal, the industry is facing an imminent "plateau before entering an expected downturn later in the decade". 

While 2024 saw international coal trade reach a record 1,544 million tonnes, the forward-looking projections for 2025 and beyond signal a sharp reversal. Global trade is expected to contract by 5% in 2025 alone, falling to 1,468m tonnes. This downturn is not a cyclical fluctuation, but a reflection of deep-seated shifts in energy policy, domestic production strategies, and the competitive arrival of alternative fuels, said the report. 

China remains the primary centre of gravity for the global coal market, consuming more than the rest of the world combined. However, the report highlights that the tide is turning in Chinese trade dynamics. 

After an "unprecedented" import high of 548m tonnes in 2024, Chinese imports are forecast to decline by approximately 2.5% annually through 2030.

This reduction is being driven by a strategic emphasis on domestic production and the aggressive expansion of renewable energy capacity. 

The IEA notes that while "China remains the key driver of global coal market trends”, its future demand is expected to decline slowly, by less than 1% annually, as coal’s role shifts toward providing flexibility to the power grid.

The implications for major exporters like Indonesia and Australia are expected to be profound. Indonesia, currently the world’s top exporter and a "key swing supplier" to Asia, is projected to see its exports contract by at least 9% in 2025. The IEA observes that "Indonesia’s coal sector is set to remain tied to demand trends in China”, making it vulnerable as Chinese import requirements ease. Similarly, thermal coal exports from Australia are facing headwinds from traditional partners like Japan and Korea, both of which are pursuing decarbonisation and "efforts to decarbonise and shifts in the electricity sector". 

Met Coal Prospects

While the thermal coal segment faces a clear downward trajectory—with trade volumes expected to fall below 1 billion tonnes by 2030—the outlook for metallurgical (met) coal is "somewhat more resilient", said the report. The IEA has revised its met coal forecast upward, largely due to the "slower than anticipated deployment of low-carbon steelmaking technologies". Here, India is expected to be a critical growth engine. 

As India seeks to expand its steel production, its met coal imports are projected to grow by 27m tonnes between 2025 and 2030, effectively becoming the "key growth market" that offsets declines in Europe and East Asia.

The shifting demand patterns are creating a more competitive and cost-sensitive environment for producers.

Thermal coal prices have already retreated from the record highs of 2022, and in 2025, they were roughly 10% to 20% lower than the previous year. This pricing pressure, combined with the "coming wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity”, is expected to intensify competition among exporters. 

The report suggests that coal is currently valued at "roughly two-thirds of the global LNG market" in energy terms, yet "while LNG trade is expected to expand in the coming years, coal trade is projected to continue to contract".

For major exporting nations, these trends are already impacting national revenues. Total earnings for the 11 major coal-exporting countries are estimated to fall by approximately 25% in 2025 compared with 2024, driven by the dual pressure of lower volumes and depressed prices. Australia, despite lower volumes than Indonesia, continues to lead in revenue due to its "substantial share of high value met coal exports”, which generated an estimated US$45 billion in 2025. In contrast, Russia has seen its export revenues significantly impacted by the need for "significant discounts to remain competitive" following the invasion of Ukraine.

Forward Outlook

Looking toward the end of the decade, the geographical "eastward shift in global demand" will be complete, finds the IEA.

By 2030, the combined share of China and India in global consumption is expected to remain dominant, though their paths will diverge. India is forecast to have the "highest output growth" and the most substantial consumption increase, adding over 200m tonnes by 2030. Conversely, advanced economies in Europe and North America are expected to see continued structural declines of 153m tonnes and 106m tonnes, respectively, as "phase-out policies and fuel switching accelerate".

IEA director of energy markets and security Keisuke Sadamori said: “Despite uncharacteristic trends in several key coal markets in 2025, our forecast for the coming years has not changed substantially from a year ago: we expect global coal demand to plateau before edging down by 2030,” said. “That said, there are many uncertainties affecting the outlook for coal, most notably in China, where developments – from economic growth and policy choices to energy market dynamics and weather – will continue to have an outsize influence on the global picture. More broadly, trends in electricity demand growth and the integration of renewables worldwide could impact coal’s trajectory.”

In conclusion, the IEA speaks of an era where "coal’s operational role is evolving". While it remains critical for electricity security and industrial processes in emerging Asia, a structural transition toward renewables and gas is in full flow. 

The industry is therefore in a state of flux where margins on thermal coal exports have contracted sharply, and mergers and acquisitions have "almost ground to a halt", said the report.  

The coming years will be defined by a "complex interplay between expansion in emerging markets and the phase-out challenges in mature systems”, said the IEA.