February 28, 2026 - Industry uncertainty over US tariffs is keeping metallurgical coal volumes and demand low as buyers delay projects, according to Alpha Metallurgical Resources executives.

After the Supreme Court overturned President Donald Trump's country-specific tariffs on Feb. 20, Trump imposed a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorizes a president to impose temporary tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days. The wild vacillations in tariff policy have led to delayed investment decisions and construction of new facilities.

"I think the challenge here is the constant state of flux in the tariff structures," Charles Eidson, Alpha Metallurgical Resources CEO, said on a Feb. 27 earnings call. "I think it's got a lot of people sitting on their hands waiting to see where things fall out before they make big moves - and that degree of lethargy is part of the problem when you look at this market."

Coal was exempt from Trump's country-specific tariffs and remains exempt under the newly imposed Section 122 tariffs. But steel, which metallurgical coal is used to make, faces a 50% tariff imposed under a separate law that still stands.

Eidson pointed to an unpredictability in coal volume movement making it difficult to predict demand trends.

"I think a lot of folks are continuing to wait and see where it lands so they can really derive the cost of whatever projects they're wanting to do," he said. "And that leaves us in a state of uncertainty."

Company executives said 2025 presented a number of challenges including continued market weakness and the met coal pricing environment. But the first quarter of 2026 hasshown an upward movement in coal markets following supply-related issues from flooding at Queensland, Australia.

"Despite these supply-related shifts in the indices, the global metallurgical coal markets are still structurally influenced by steel demand, which is linked to economic conditions, policy decisions, geopolitical tensions, tariffs and ongoing trade negotiations, all of which could impact met coal pricing," said Daniel Horn, chief commercial officer.

Horn said the steel market globally is "still pretty weak" and volumes in the US could be improved.

Alpha added 500,000 contracted short tons in sales commitments since it's previous guidance, totaling 4.1 million st for 2026.

"Especially in volatile times like these, having a solid base of committed tons to North American customers supports cash flow planning and business needs since the rest of the sales book is subject to market risk, which carries uncertainty," Eidson said.

Alpha executives expect 2026 to improve.

"The effect of the global trade wars is starting to sink in and different governments are beginning to take some action that we think will benefit met coal exports to those markets," Horn said.

Alpha reported a net loss of $17.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, down from a reported $2.1 million loss last year.

Platts assessed the price of high-vol A coking FOB US East Coast at $159/metric ton on Feb. 27, a 11.67% decrease compared to the same time last year. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.