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May 1, 2026 -
The U.S. is producing more oil than ever, and yet, Americans are still feeling the pain at the pump. Why? Because oil is a global market. Conflict in the Middle East sends prices soaring from Iran all the way to Iowa. But natural gas? That’s – at least for the time being – a different story.
Despite a global gas crisis, sending prices soaring in Asia and Europe, U.S. natural gas prices have actually fallen.
So what’s going on?
Unlike oil, natural gas markets are still largely local. With the U.S. the world’s top gas producer and LNG exports already running at capacity, the global price spike hasn’t upended the U.S. market.
But what’s true today, may well not be true tomorrow.
U.S. LNG export capacity is set to double by the end of the decade. When it does, the U.S. gas market is likely to feel far more influence from global demand.
At the same time, domestic natural gas demand is surging, driven by the AI revolution and the development of enormous data centers.
While it’s impossible to know where U.S. natural gas prices will land in the years ahead, soaring demand – from home and abroad – is here.
Could today’s gas glut become tomorrow’s energy vulnerability? Maybe. But what is far more certain is the value of fuel optionality.
Today, the global pivot to coal is underway as governments seek shelter from soaring natural gas prices. It’s a lesson we should not think ourselves so gas rich to dismiss.
The U.S. coal fleet has long been our price shock absorber, a safe haven to protect consumers from price spikes.
There have now been two global gas shocks in four years. Inevitably there will be another.
Fuel optionality – underpinned by coal – will be essential to managing it.
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