July 12, 2026 - In the second quarter of 2026, Black Bear Value Partners discussed Warrior Met Coal after the company completed its Blue Creek development project, which positions it as one of the lowest-cost metallurgical coal producers globally.

The investor letter also underscored how limited global investment in new metallurgical coal capacity could tighten future supply, potentially enhancing Warrior Met Coal’s competitive position as steel demand evolves.

We’ll now examine how the completion of Blue Creek and these emerging supply constraints may reshape Warrior Met Coal’s broader investment narrative.

To own Warrior Met Coal, you need to believe that premium metallurgical coal will remain essential for steel, and that Blue Creek’s low-cost tons can offset pricing and demand pressure. The key short term catalyst is Blue Creek’s successful ramp from development into cash-generating production, which this completion milestone directly supports. The biggest current risk is that global steel demand and coal prices stay weak, limiting the benefit of new capacity despite Warrior’s lower cost position.