July 13, 2026 - If the U.S. energy sector underwent a mid-year checkup,?the verdict would be positive: vital signs are improving, clean energy is steadily growing, and certain long-standing illnesses?are becoming more severe.

The transition is not yet complete, but trends remain in the right directions.

As the system becomes cleaner, total electricity production continues to grow.

According to the energy think-tank Ember, total electricity production?from January through July was 2,234 Terawatt Hours (TWh),?the highest for that half year period. This marks a nearly 3 percent increase from the previous year.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a large part of this growth will be driven by AI-hungry, data centers, and electrification. The EIA expects U.S. electricity consumption to reach record highs in 2026-2027 for the third and fourth consecutive years.

The rapid expansion of the electricity supply appears to be a sign of a healthy patient. Before assuming that a patient is in good health, it's important to examine the vital signs.

VITAL SIGN 1: CLEAN POWER APPROACHING PRIMARY STATUS

Clean electricity is now regularly producing more power than fossil-fuels. This is the clearest sign that progress has been made.

According to Ember, from March through May, clean energy sources generated more than 50% of the electricity supplied by U.S. utilities, which is the longest stretch ever recorded.

Clean sources provided 46.4% all of the electricity in June. This is when summer demand increases gas-fired power generation.

This?compares to 42.4% in 2025 and 41.7% of June 2024. It indicates sustained clean-power development despite the aggressive push by the U.S. government to promote fossil fuels instead of renewables.

Diagnose: Clean power is becoming the predominant source of energy during the key months of the calendar year.

VITAL SIGN 2: SOLAR STRENGTH

Solar power is the fastest growing part of our energy system.

According to Ember, solar power generation in the first half of this year reached 231 TWh.

Solar generation in June 2025 will be around 41.5 TWh. The first half of last year's output totaled 190 TWh - a growth rate year-on year of over 20%.

Solar's share in the?U.S. The generation mix also reached new heights. Since March, solar has consistently represented more than 10% of all utility mixes.

Diagnosis : Solar power has evolved into a major contributor to the U.S. energy system.

VITAL SIGN 3: COAL CONTINUES TO SHRINK

The oldest chronic disease in the sector continues to decline.

Coal's contribution to generation has fallen from 32% at the beginning of 2016 to only 11.7% by April 2026.

In April 2026, coal-fired electricity generation will total only 39.8 tWh compared to more than 113 tWh in January 2016

The high summer temperatures, coupled with the demand for air conditioners that consume a lot of power, have increased coal-fired production. However, its output year-to date is still around 11% lower than last year.

Diagnosis : Coal is still a part of the mix for generation, but it's no longer an essential resource.

VITAL SIGN 4: POLLUTION KEEPS FALLING

The changing generation mix is affecting emissions.

According to Ember, the total power-sector emission in June was just under 146 million tons of carbon dioxide or equivalent gases.

This is down from almost 154 million tonnes in June 2025. The power sector emissions have fallen by about 5% compared to a year earlier despite an increase in the overall electricity output.

Spring 2026 has delivered some of the best results in the dataset, with emissions totaling just 114 millions tons in March, and 109 millions tons in April.

Diagnosis : Cleaner generation is resulting in real emission reductions and not just cleaner capacity additions.

VITAL SIGN 5: NATURAL GAS REMAINS KEY

Not all indicators point to a successful transition.

During the first half 2026, natural gas will still generate 39% to 40% of U.S. electric power.

In June 2026, gas-fired production reached 162 TWh, underscoring the role it continues to play in meeting demand and balancing out renewable output.

Gas has been marketed as a "bridge" fuel for many years. It is still hard to replace in the top gas producing country of the world because it can increase output quickly when demand increases or renewable energy sources fall.

Diagnosis : Although the patient is in better health, it still relies on gas for its primary source of dispatchable energy.

CLOSING PROGNOSIS

The mid-year review shows that the electricity system is undergoing a gradual transformation, rather than a radical revolution.

Solar has surpassed coal as a heavyweight and emissions are continuing to fall.

The U.S. grid is becoming less fossil fuel-powered and more clean-powered with each passing year.

The opinions expressed are those of a columnist, the author. This column is a great read! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.