Coal Zoom | Coal, Growth, and the Postwar Boom

Coal, Growth, and the Postwar Boom

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

September 1, 2026 - Tomorrow is the 81st anniversary of the end of World War 2 (WW2). On Sept. 2, 1945, Japan signed its official surrender to the Allies, and Germany surrendered in May that year. So 81 years of no world war, something to celebrate about human rationality.

Now there are ongoing wars between neighbors like Russia vs. Ukraine + NATO countries, Israel versus Lebanon’s Hezbollah and versus Gaza’s Palestine, Saudi Arabia versus Yemen’s Houthis, and the big war between the US and Iran. There are also civil wars in some countries.

And there are war preparations somewhere like China versus Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines versus China, etc.

I will show the improvement in human development after WW2, the economic and energy prosperity after that big war. For GDP size way back in the 1800s, I use the Maddison Project by Angus Maddison and younger faculty of the University of Groningen in The Netherlands. The database covers GDP size at 1990 values of Geary-Khamis (G-K) international $, until 2008. For 2025, I used IMF data.

The numbers below show the following.

First, the usual narrative we hear or read that the Philippines was “second-largest (or richest) to Japan after WW2” is wrong. In 1950, China, India and Indonesia had larger economies than the Philippines.

Second, in 1950, China’s economy was only one-sixth of the US, 1/3 in 1985, but in 2025 at purchasing power parity (PPP) values, China’s economy was 1.4 times larger than the US.

Third, Germany and Italy, the invaders on Europe in WW2, had economic contraction during and after the war — Germany from $377 billion in 1940 to $302 billion in 1945 and $265 billion in 1950, and Italy from $155 billion in 1940 to $87 billion in 1945 and $165 billion in 1950.

Fourth, Japan, the invader of Asia in WW2, experienced even deeper economic contraction — from $210 billion in 1940 to only $103 billion in 1945 and recovering to $161 billion in 1950.

Fifth, coal has been the fuel of industrialization in the west until the 1980s especially for the USSR/Russia, Germany, the UK, the US and Canada.

Sixth, Asia belatedly used coal to industrialize, picking up speed in coal use since the 1980s only. China’s coal use in 2025 of 92,239 Petajoules (PJ) is six times the combined coal use of all G7 countries of 15,123 PJ. Japan is the only G7 country that realizes the value of coal to sustain its industrialization and has increased coal use up to today (see Table 1).

Seventh, in merchandise exports from 1965 to 1985, US exports were eight to nine times larger than China. In 2025, China’s was 1.7 times larger than the US. This is consistent with the trend in GDP size expansion of the two countries as mentioned in item No. 2 above.

Eighth, expansion in exports from 1965 to 2025 or 60 years were largest in Vietnam, with 22,520 times, S. Korea with 4,100 times, and China and Taiwan with more than 1,400 times.

Ninth, in GDP size expansion over the past 60 years, the largest multiples above 46 times were all in Asia except Japan and Philippines. For the large economies of America and Europe, none has expanded above 26 times.

Tenth, countries with high coal use also have high expansion in GDP size and exports: China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. And countries that reduced their coal use also experienced slow expansion in GDP size and exports: Germany, the UK, France, the US and Canada (see Table 2).

The Philippines should aspire for more economic prosperity, larger GDP size and growth, more exports, more manufacturing and industrialization. To attain this, we should never bow to the climate establishment’s degrowth and deindustrialization agenda of killing coal in power generation.

And the Philippines also should never bow to the war mongering groups’ agenda of war preparations, use some P2 trillion of taxpayers’ money and borrowed money for AFP procurement alone for missiles, jetfighters, etc. on top of their big regular, annual budget.

We should contribute to prolonging the 81 years of no world war, not cutting it by having another ugly war on top of existing ugly wars in Europe and the Middle East.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.