September 1, 2026 - U.S. coal shipments by rail are expected to post a slight year-over-year increase in the fourth quarter, offering a rare period of growth for a freight segment that has been in long-term decline.

Freight Market Intelligence Telegraph forecasts national coal carload volumes will rise by less than 1% from a year earlier. Although modest, the increase would mark a notable change following more than a decade of declining coal rail traffic.

Export demand is expected to be the primary driver. Coal volumes at CSX and Norfolk Southern showed growth during the second quarter, suggesting overseas markets are providing additional opportunities for U.S. producers and railroads.

Rising electricity needs could also provide some domestic support. The rapid construction of data centers is increasing power demand, potentially contributing to slower retirements of coal-fired generating capacity.

Telegraph emphasized that the forecast does not signal a major reversal in coal's longer-term trajectory. Instead, the expected fourth-quarter improvement represents a gradual and relatively small change supported by favorable market conditions.

The broader freight rail outlook also remains positive through the end of the year. Factors including data center development, changing trade patterns and global energy prices could generate additional rail traffic.

U.S. producers may hold another advantage through comparatively favorable domestic natural gas costs. With global energy prices under pressure, lower input costs could strengthen the competitiveness of some U.S.-manufactured products and create additional export freight.

Intermodal rail is also benefiting from a substantial pricing advantage over trucking. The truck-to-intermodal price difference recently stood at about 34%, helping push intermodal volumes to record levels as shippers adjust their transportation strategies.

For coal, however, the most significant development is the possibility of even modest growth. After years of contraction, stronger exports and changing electricity demand could give rail coal volumes a small but meaningful lift heading into the final quarter of the year.