September 10, 2026 - Global coal demand is expected to reach a record high in 2026 as disruptions to international oil and natural gas supplies increase coal-fired power generation in several major markets, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The agency now forecasts worldwide coal consumption will rise 1.2% this year to approximately 8.94 billion tonnes, a significant change from its earlier expectation that demand would decline slightly in 2026.

The stronger outlook comes as conflict in the Middle East disrupts shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies. Higher fuel prices and reduced LNG availability have encouraged countries with available coal-fired generating capacity to increase coal use.

The IEA said coal consumption has been stronger than previously anticipated in China, Europe, Japan, South Korea and other markets.

The developments highlight coal's continuing importance to energy security, particularly when natural gas supplies become constrained or more expensive. Power systems capable of switching between fuels or increasing generation from existing coal plants have been able to rely more heavily on coal as conditions in global energy markets have changed.

The outlook for 2027 remains uncertain and will depend substantially on whether normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes.

A recovery in LNG shipments could reduce the need for additional coal-fired generation and contribute to lower global coal demand next year. However, if LNG traffic through the strait remains severely restricted, the IEA said coal consumption could rise further.

On the supply side, global coal production is expected to decline in 2026 but remain above 9 billion tonnes for the third consecutive year.

China, the world's largest coal producer, has experienced a reduction in output following increased mine safety inspections prompted by a major mining accident in May. The inspections have contributed to a significant decline in Chinese coal production.

The latest IEA forecast illustrates the continuing influence of energy security and fuel availability on the global coal market. Despite efforts in many countries to expand renewable generation and reduce fossil fuel use, coal remains an important source of dispatchable power when other energy supplies are disrupted or become more costly.