September 14, 2026 - Coal demand in Southeast Asia will remain robust this year and in 2027, fueled by the expected increase in power demand and the looming strong El Niño, according to International Energy Agency (IEA).

Demand among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) is expected to hit around 574 million tons in 2026, with growth largely driven by the power market.

Coal remains king in electricity generation in some Asean countries, including Indonesia and the Philippines, given its cheaper price tag and capacity to produce power around the clock.

Demand in the Philippines and Malaysia is seen to “remain broadly stable” this year, as existing power plants are already running at high capacity.

But the presence of a so-called super El Niño may lead to a further rise in coal use next year, particularly in Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.

“El Niño conditions could provide further support for coal use by increasing cooling demand and reducing hydropower output,” IEA said.

El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, a weather phenomenon often linked to extreme climate conditions such as drought, erratic rainfall and stronger heat waves.

The situation may intensify in the last months of the year and persist until early 2027, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said.