October 3, 2026 - The boom in India’s steel industry is transforming the global market for the seaborne transport of metallurgical coal and coke.

According to industry analysts, steel production in India has risen from 104 million tonnes in 2021 to approximately 169 million tonnes in 2026. Meanwhile, installed capacity has reached around 220 million tonnes, and by 2030 this figure could approach the 300 million tonne mark.

The rapid expansion of the industry is creating enormous demand for imported raw materials. India currently consumes around 175 million tonnes of coking coal per year, but domestic production accounts for only around 20 million tonnes, making the country critically dependent on external supplies. It is expected that by 2030, total imports of coking coal and pulverized coal fuel (PCI) will rise to 120 million tonnes per year (of which 90 million tonnes will be coking coal and 30 million tonnes will be PCI).

At the same time, the geography of procurement is changing. The share held by the traditional leader — Australia — is gradually declining, as Indian buyers increase their imports from the US, Mozambique and the Russian Federation. In particular, purchases of Russian PCI have risen significantly thanks to attractive prices and good quality.

Similar trends are also evident in the steel coke market. In the first seven months of 2026, India imported around 4 million tonnes of coke, and by the end of the year, the volume of imports could reach 6.5 million tonnes and remain at 6–7 million tonnes until 2030. Indonesia has become the main supplier of coke, providing 2.7 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2026 thanks to favorable prices, logistical proximity and lower anti-dumping duties.

The expansion of coking capacity in Indonesia could undermine China’s position as the world’s largest exporter of this product. At the same time, China itself remains a key player: production disruptions in Shanxi Province have limited domestic supplies of coking coal, which is supporting global prices.

For Indian steelmakers, the decisive factor remains the final cost including delivery, which depends on freight rates, the quality of raw materials, anti-dumping duties and the cost of producing their own coke. Consequently, the expansion of the Indian steel industry is creating long-term structural demand for coal and coke, opening up new opportunities for global suppliers.

As reported by GMK Center, the shortage of coking coal in China will continue until 2027, ensuring high demand for imports despite the authorities’ attempts to restore domestic production and stabilize prices. The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China has called for the resumption of operations at mines shut down after May to be accelerated, granting permission for low-risk facilities to restart. Production in Shanxi is expected to begin recovering in the fourth quarter, although a full return to normal will not occur until the first half of 2027 at the earliest.