November 3, 2026 - China's imports of seaborne thermal coal have been remarkably consistent in recent months with October's 24 million metric tons in the middle of a narrow range that has persisted since June.

But beneath the steady volumes the dynamics in the world's biggest coal importer are changing, including weather-related supply shifts, falling domestic output and consumption and the likely impact of a strong El Nino weather event over winter.

China's October imports of ‌seaborne thermal coal were 24.07 million tons, according to commodity analysts Kpler, while DBX Commodities tracked arrivals of 24.78 million.

The October number was slightly up from Kpler's September assessment of 23.52 million.

June's seaborne imports of 25.79 million tons were the highest since January, and since then, China's demand for thermal coal has been locked in a tight range between the June high and a low of 22.84 million tons in August.

This recent band with monthly imports averaging around 24 million tons is also 50% above the 15.96 million tons seen in April, which was the lowest in almost four years.

The uptick in seaborne thermal coal imports came after an accident at a coal mine in Shanxi province on May 22 killed 82 people and prompted a series of safety inspections that curtailed output.

Domestic production has started to recover with September output rising to 385.13 million tons, up from August's 361.82 million, according to official data released on October 19.

However, for the first nine months of the year, production of 3.45 billion tons was down 3.5% from the same period last year.

While the weaker domestic output has led to stronger demand for imported thermal coal, the impact has been ameliorated by lower coal-fired electricity generation.

Thermal power, which is largely coal-based with only a tiny contribution from natural gas, dropped 1.2% in September from the year-earlier month, while nuclear rose 21.5% after two new units came online, according to official data.

For the first nine months of the year fossil fuel generation was up a marginal 0.7%, which means coal demand would have been largely steady to possibly even weaker as older, less efficient coal-fired units are replaced with more modern furnaces.

Even though seaborne thermal coal imports have risen from June onwards, the mix of suppliers has changed.

Supply Shuffle

China's biggest supplier is Indonesia, the world's biggest coal exporter.

However, Indonesian output has been constrained by drought, which lowers river levels and ‌reduces the volumes that can be barged from mines to the coast for loading onto larger vessels.

China's thermal coal imports from Indonesia were 14.13 million tons in October, according to Kpler, up from 13.22 million in September.

However, the past two months have been the weakest for imports from Indonesia since April and are also well below the 19.60 million tons from October last year and the 18.14 million from September that year.

In contrast, China's thermal coal imports from Australia, the world's second-biggest coal exporter, have been rising in recent months, with Kpler estimating arrivals of 6.42 million tons in October and 6.78 million in September, the two strongest months since April and May last year.

Indonesia's thermal coal exports are likely to recover slightly in November, with DBX Commodities estimating shipments of 41.27 million tons, up from 38.60 million in October.

However, the November exports are likely to be down 16% from the 49.06 million tons from the same month in 2025, and so far this year only June has seen higher exports when compared to the same month last year.

The likelihood of a strong El Nino weather event complicates both the supply and demand scenario for thermal coal.

El Nino weather patterns are normally associated with warmer and wetter winters for North Asian countries such as China, which usually lowers demand for thermal coal for power generation and heating.

El Nino also brings less rainfall to Indonesia and Australia, but this has different impacts on the top exporters.

For Indonesia, it means lower river levels and thus reduced barging volumes, while for Australia it means less chance of heavy rain causing flooding to mines and transport systems.