November 5, 2026 - From June 8–20, 2026, rolling blackouts affected multiple regions across Java, Indonesia’s economic heartland. Initially reported in Bogor, Tangerang Raya, Semarang, and East Java, the outages later spread to other parts of the island, with some lasting up to six hours. Though the outages largely subsided afterward, their frequency and duration caused considerable disruption.

Indonesia’s business sector was hit hardest. Smaller enterprises faced production stoppages, interrupted sales, and product losses during prolonged outages, while manufacturers experienced operational setbacks. Erwin Aksa, Coordinating Vice Chairman for Organization, Communication, and Regional Empowerment at the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, estimated that repeated power interruptions reduced daily productivity by 10–30 percent. While the total economic losses have yet to be quantified, they are expected to be substantial given Java’s central role in Indonesia’s economy.

Rolling blackouts are more familiar outside Java, where power outages occurred about twice as often as in Java in 2025. The disparity was even more pronounced in outage duration — customers outside Java experienced an average of 17.02 hours without power that same year, compared with 2.58 hours in Java and 8.5 hours nationally.

Java’s large and interconnected grid links dozens of power plants through an integrated transmission network, which allows different generators to support one another when disruptions occur. The emergence of rolling blackouts in Java, regarded as the region with the most reliable electricity system in Indonesia, raises broader questions about the resilience of Indonesia’s electricity system.

Several factors have been identified as possible contributors to the rolling blackouts. In addition to technical disruptions at two major power plants, concerns emerged over the availability of coal for domestic electricity generation. There is a significant gap between the regulated domestic coal price and international market prices. While coal supplied to the electricity industry under the Domestic Price Obligation is capped at US$70 per metric ton, international benchmark prices for high- and medium-calorie coal in June 2026 reached US$84.53 and US$121.83 per metric ton, respectively.

This disparity reduces the commercial incentive for producers to prioritize domestic energy supply, despite the Domestic Market Obligation requirement for coal mining companies to allocate a minimum of 25 percent of their annual production to the domestic market.

The effectiveness of the existing sanctions in deterring noncompliance has also been questioned. Where penalties are insufficient to offset the opportunity costs of supplying coal domestically, noncompliance remains financially attractive for some producers. Nor does compliance with the Domestic Market Obligation necessarily guarantee coal supplies to the electricity sector. Mining companies may instead favor other domestic industries, such as coal processing and smelting, where sales can offer more attractive returns without being subject to the Domestic Price Obligation. This creates additional competition for domestic coal supplies.

By June 2026, PT PLN (Persero), Indonesia’s state-owned electric utility company, had only secured contracts for around 134 million metric tons of coal against estimated requirements of approximately 154 million metric tons.

More fundamentally, the recent blackouts cast doubt on Indonesia’s continued dependence on coal. By April 2026, national electricity generation had reached an estimated 165.51 terawatt-hours, with coal accounting for the largest share at 64.87 percent.

Renewable energy has an important role to play in strengthening energy security through diversification. Admittedly, technologies such as solar panels and wind turbines, as well as the critical minerals required to manufacture them, remain embedded in global supply chains that are not immune to geopolitical tensions. But once deployed, these technologies generate electricity domestically and are less directly exposed to global price volatility than fossil fuels. Indonesia may be able to learn from Vietnam, where energy security goals have been approached by emphasizing renewables.

Indonesia has been estimated to have up to 3,687 gigawatts of renewable energy potential. Solar energy accounts for the largest share at 3,294 gigawatts. PT PLN (Persero)’s 2025–2034 Electricity Supply Business Plan targets a gradual increase in the share of renewables from 15.9 percent in 2025 to 34.3 percent by 2034.

By April 2026, renewables had already contributed approximately 17.89 percent of national electricity generation, exceeding targets for the year under the Electricity Supply Business Plan. This progress is encouraging, but it warrants continued monitoring, particularly given the substantial increase in the planned share after 2030. More broadly, rather than treating existing targets as an endpoint, continued assessment of technological, infrastructure, financing, and grid constraints could help determine where greater ambition is feasible while maintaining system reliability.

Though there is no one-size-fits-all pathway to build a resilient electricity system, a more balanced electricity mix can reduce systemic risks associated with overreliance on a single energy source and provide greater flexibility in responding to supply disruptions. In this regard, renewable energy represents both a climate solution and a strategic opportunity to strengthen national energy security.

In an era of increasing geopolitical and market uncertainty, strengthening energy security has become increasingly important. Reliable electricity is fundamental to economic activity, public services, and household welfare. The recent rolling blackouts provide a timely reminder that energy security requires sustained reforms that place diversification at the center of long-term electricity planning.