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By Dr. Nejat Tamzok
November 9, 2026 -
Key Takeaways:
One of the most critical issues at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31), which Türkiye will host in Antalya, will be coal. Those concerned about the climate crisis expect urgent and binding decisions to curb the use of one of the most controversial energy sources of our time.
But do all countries around the world really share this view and want to phase out coal? And if so, has the end finally come for this polluting fuel?
These questions are not new. They were raised again when global coal consumption, which had been the world’s primary energy source for much of the previous century, lost momentum and remained almost stagnant during the 1990s. However, beginning in the early years of this century, coal entered a historic 13-year “supercycle.” Global consumption increased by approximately 70 percent during this period. Between 2013 and today, growth slowed considerably over the second 13-year period, reviving expectations that coal was approaching its end. Yet coal repeatedly regained momentum, and consumption increased every year from 2021 onward.
Today, global coal consumption is no longer following the extraordinary upward trajectory seen between 2000 and 2013. But neither is it on a downward path. Instead, it is moving within a relatively stable range at historically high levels. Coal’s share of global primary energy consumption stood at around 23 percent at the beginning of the century, compared with approximately 27 percent today. Its role in the global energy mix has changed relatively little over the years.
The main transformation in coal has been geographical rather than quantitative. At the beginning of this century, the United States and Europe together accounted for approximately 40 percent of global coal production and consumption. Their combined share has since fallen to around 10 percent. Today, more than 80 percent of the world’s coal is produced and consumed in the Asia-Pacific region.
Alongside falling investment costs for renewable energy, the shale gas revolution in the United States, European policies aimed at reducing dependence on Russian energy, and the depletion of a significant portion of coal resources have pushed coal to the margins in the West. Meanwhile, coal consumption in Russia, a major coal producer, and other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has remained broadly stagnant for approximately 25 years. Nor has there been significant coal consumption or a sustained upward trend in Central and South America, the Middle East, or Africa outside South Africa. Coal appears to have limited prospects for growth in these regions.
From the perspective of North America or Europe, it is therefore easy to believe that coal is nearing the end of its life. But turning toward Asia reveals a very different picture. Despite its substantial investments in renewable energy in recent years, China consumes approximately 15 percent more coal than it did just a decade ago. The country accounts for 56 percent of global coal consumption and shows little sign of reversing course.
Coal consumption in the Asia-Pacific region excluding China has increased by 32 percent over the past decade. Numerous countries in this region—including India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Bangladesh—are increasing their coal use to sustain high rates of economic growth and build the infrastructure needed to support it. In these countries, where per capita electricity consumption remains relatively low, the need for electrification will continue to be one of the main sources of coal demand in the coming years. Moreover, given that their coal-fired power plant fleets are already much younger than those in the United States and Europe, it is difficult to foresee this region abandoning coal or global coal consumption declining rapidly anytime soon.
The world, therefore, is not undergoing a linear phase-out of coal. Capacity being retired in the West is being absorbed by the East’s growing electrification and infrastructure needs. Meanwhile, coal is increasingly becoming a predominantly Asia-Pacific commodity.
Recent geopolitical tensions, wars, and supply chain vulnerabilities have once again demonstrated the importance of having access to domestic energy resources. Even countries that have declared an end to coal use may return to it when geopolitical risks intensify. These risks encourage countries to retain conventional energy sources such as coal even as they expand renewable capacity. Energy security and climate policies do not always move in the same direction, and coal continues to serve as an “insurance policy” for security of supply in some countries.
Consequently, analyses of coal’s future that focus exclusively on global warming and climate change provide an incomplete picture. For many countries, abandoning coal also means relinquishing a degree of energy security and, increasingly, national security. In these countries, coal remains a means of escaping poverty and improving social welfare. Moreover, millions of people in many countries, particularly China, India, and Russia, earn their livelihoods from coal production, transportation, and distribution. For these countries, therefore, phasing out coal also entails serious economic and social challenges.
Climate policies and COP decisions shape financing and the geographical distribution of energy investments. However, the pace of the global transition—and, consequently, coal’s future—is determined not by climate conferences themselves, but by the choices and strategies embedded in the energy policies that nation-states formulate in pursuit of their own interests. In short, any assessment that coal has reached the end of its road would be exaggerated and misleading.
Dr. Nejat Tamzok received his bachelor's and master's degrees in Mining Engineering from the Middle East Technical University, and his doctorate degree in Political Science and Public Administration from the Ankara University. He also graduated from the Anadolu University Department of History. He has worked at the Turkish Coal Enterprises since 1985, where he has held the positions of Planning Director and Strategic Planning Coordinator. He has participated in the construction of numerous engineering projects throughout his career. He also served as the Editor-in-Chief of the Scientific Mining Journal, a peer-reviewed publication of the Chamber of Mining Engineers of Turkey, from 2016 to 2023. Dr. Tamzok is a member of the Chamber of Mining Engineers of Turkey, the Turkish National Committee of the World Mining Congress, the Turkish National Committee of the World Energy Council, and the Middle East Technical University Alumni Association.
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