November 11, 2026 - Coal’s changing trade map is creating winners and losers across dry bulk shipping in 2026, with Indonesian exports retreating, southern African shipments setting records and Asian import demand increasingly fractured.

Clarksons Research forecasts seaborne coal trade will edge up just 1% this year to 1.343bn tonnes. Beneath that modest increase, Indonesian exports are projected to fall 6% to 496.9m tonnes, while Australian shipments climb 4% to 371.3m tonnes. Chinese seaborne imports are expected to decline 5%, India’s 3%, while Japan’s rise 3%.

The Indonesian retreat is already evident on loading lists. Braemar’s analysis of AXSMarine tracking shows exports falling 8% year-on-year during January-October. Capesize shipments were down 24%, supramax and ultramax movements 12%, and panamax cargoes 4%. Export procedures and low river levels have compounded pressure on shipments.

Southern Africa presents a contrast. Ursa Shipbrokers calculates combined South African and Mozambican steam coal exports reached a ten-year high of 64.92m tonnes during January-October, with 27.26m tonnes destined for India. 

Globally, however, tracked seaborne steam coal trade fell 1.5% to 801.1m tonnes, including a 7.9% decline in Indonesian shipments.

India offers perhaps the year’s biggest paradox. BIMCO reports coal imports dropped 7% in the first ten months despite coal-fired electricity generation rising around 9%. Expensive imported supplies have encouraged greater reliance on domestic production and stock drawdowns. BRS says coal inventories at power stations were equivalent to only 5.9 days of consumption, against 14.7 days a year earlier. Supramaxes have been hardest hit, with Indian-bound coal volumes falling 16%, compared with a 4% decline for panamaxes. October offered the first signs of a turn, with Indian seaborne coal arrivals rising 7% year-on-year. However, BIMCO expects only a limited import recovery in 2027 as domestic mining grows.

The Middle East energy crisis has meanwhile encouraged coal-fired generation in parts of Europe and northeast Asia as LNG supplies tightened. 

The changing dynamics of global coal trades will come under the spotlight at Geneva Dry 2027 next April, where panelists, including Danilo Fumarola, CEO of Gestion Maritime Group, and Peter Weernink, chairman of SwissMarine, will examine shifting tonne-mile patterns, the routes gaining ground, China’s appetite for coal imports and whether the fallout from the war around the Strait of Hormuz will have a lasting impact on demand.